"What I've repeatedly noticed is that the people who really get in trouble during these crises are those who try to think everything through before taking any action. The problem with defining and refining your hypotheses without testing them is that the world keeps changing, and your analyses get further and further behind. So you've got to constantly update your thinking while you're sitting there and reflecting. And that's why I'm such a proponent of what I call "sensemaking." There are many definitions of sensemaking; for me it is the transformation of raw experience into intelligible world views. It's a bit like what mapmakers do when they try to make sense of an unfamiliar place by capturing it on paper. But the crucial point in cartography is that there is no one best map of a particular terrain. Similarly, sensemaking lends itself to multiple, conflicting interpretations, all of which are plausible. If an organization finds itself unsure of where it's going, or even where it's been, then it ought to be wide open to a lot of different interpretations, all of which can lead to possible action. The action and its consequence then begin to edit the list of interpretations down to a more manageable size.
And this is the point I wish to underscore: Action, tempered by reflection, is the critical component in recovering from cosmology episodes. Once you start to act, you can flesh out your interpretations and rework them. But it's the action itself that gets you moving again. That's why I advise leaders to leap in order to look, or to leap while looking. There's a beautiful example of this: Several years ago, a platoon of Hungarian soldiers got lost in the Alps. One of the soldiers found a map in his pocket, and the troops used it to get out safely. Subsequently, however, the soldiers discovered that the map they had used was, in fact, a drawing of another mountain range, the Pyrenees. I just love that story, because it illustrates that when you're confused, almost any old strategic plan can help you discover what's going on and what should be done next. In crises especially, leaders have to act in order to think - and not the other way around."